Economic Models and Forecasting

Day 1:

Introduction to Economic Models and their Applications

• Overview of Economic Models: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic

• Key Economic Theories: Supply and Demand, Market Equilibrium

• Types of Economic Models: Static vs. Dynamic Models

• The Importance of Modeling in Economic Analysis and Decision Making

• Case Study: Using Economic Models to Understand Business Cycles

• Hands-On Exercise: Developing Basic Economic Models for Market Analysis

Day 2:

Econometric Models and Forecasting Techniques

• Introduction to Econometrics and its Role in Economic Forecasting

• Key Concepts: Regression Analysis, Time Series Data, and Statistical Inference

• Building and Testing Econometric Models

• Understanding Model Accuracy: Errors, Biases, and Limitations

• Practical Session: Using Software (e.g., EViews, STATA, or R) for Econometric Analysis

• Hands-On Exercise: Estimating Econometric Models for Real Economic Data

Day 3:

Time Series Forecasting and Applications

• Understanding Time Series Data: Components, Patterns, and Trends

• Methods of Time Series Forecasting: ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Moving Averages

• Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators: GDP, Inflation, Unemployment

• Case Study: Forecasting the Effects of Policy Changes on the Economy

• Practical Session: Time Series Analysis Using Statistical Tools

• Hands-On Exercise: Forecasting Economic Indicators with Time Series Models

Day 4:

Scenario Planning and Risk Assessment

• Introduction to Scenario Planning and Economic Forecasting Under Uncertainty

• Using Economic Models for Risk Assessment and Stress Testing

• Techniques for Developing Multiple Forecasting Scenarios

• Application in Business and Policy-Making: Market Volatility, Crisis Management

• Case Study: Scenario Planning for the Impact of Trade Wars or Natural Disasters on Global Markets

• Hands-On Exercise: Building Scenarios and Assessing Risks Using Economic Models

Day 5:

Applying Forecasting Techniques to Real-World Problems

• Integrating Economic Models with Business and Policy Decisions

• Forecasting in Different Sectors: Finance, Manufacturing, International Trade, and Government

• The Future of Economic Forecasting: Big Data, AI, and Machine Learning

• Case Study: Forecasting Economic Recovery after Global Shocks (e.g., COVID-19, Financial Crises)

• Group Discussion and Presentation: Creating Comprehensive Forecasting Reports

• Final Exercise: Participants Develop a Full Forecasting Model for a Specific Sector